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Showing posts with the label Global Recession

What are the risks of global recession for India ?

A global recession poses **significant risks** for India’s economy, financial markets, and socio-economic stability, though the country’s domestic demand and policy buffers may offer some resilience. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the potential impacts and vulnerabilities: --- ### **1. Export Slowdown & Trade Deficit Pressure** - **Key Risks**:     - **Decline in Global Demand**: India’s merchandise exports (textiles, gems, engineering goods) could shrink. In 2020, exports fell **16%** due to COVID-19.     - **Widening Trade Deficit**: Imports (crude oil, electronics) remain costly even as exports drop, straining forex reserves.   - **Vulnerable Sectors**:     - **IT Services**: Slowdown in US/EU clients may hurt TCS, Infosys (40% revenues from BFSI).     - **Textiles**: Apparel orders from Western markets may decline.   **Data Point**: Every 1% drop in US/EU GDP growth reduces India’s exports by **0.5–1...